https://www.volsweep.com/blog daily 0.75 2023-09-19 https://www.volsweep.com/blog/tx-voter-clusters monthly 0.5 2021-07-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625601202020-ELYA9SXR8AAXE3WEG7CV/VolSweep_2020propheatmap.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 8c Proportion of each cluster voting in the 2020 general election per county for the top 30 most populous counties. Same as above; white corresponds to half so anything green is > 50% and anything purple is < 50%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1627081396093-MN5LC0TRC9C27L9MUSAR/VolSweep_CDprops.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 13 The proportion of each cluster per congressional district (columns sum to 1, see colorbar). White represents 0.125 (1/8, or equal proportion for all clusters). The x-axis is sorted left to right by decreasing CD total population within each CD cluster type. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625474041286-BQVXOYXU18JSE66OSZDQ/VolSweep_logfreq.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 2 Log of cluster population in each county. White corresponds to the per county frequency of a theoretical cluster having 1/8 share of statewide registered voters and uniform distribution across all counties. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625460375354-DQHXURWSNHMRM1FTT6HE/VolSweep_CDPCAstate.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 12 Map of 116th Congress boundaries, colored by district types from Figure 11. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625616410523-RQPW7M0D712VD2UHWCT1/Unknown-3.png Blog - Texas voter clusters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625616410818-TGQ8O5ZI6QKZKMLX3Z6T/Unknown_Dem2020log.png Blog - Texas voter clusters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625616411212-LQA2SQ962X1HXFIP2L6E/Unknown_Dem2016prop.png Blog - Texas voter clusters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625616411682-0OWYNH621LY9DREPOO3X/Unknown_Dem2020prop.png Blog - Texas voter clusters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625633707197-OD9YU1SR6JCYIJTXS7U7/Unknown.png Blog - Texas voter clusters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1626247058813-N6443LJK1ZV9GR28QQFL/VolSweep_2020donors.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 5 Axes are the same principal components as Figure 1 (the redder direction is toward Fox & Friends and the bluer direction is toward Prog (W)OC). One dot per donor, colored by candidate recipient’s party. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625470572992-PQM9PEH8P5GRFR4TM4NQ/VolSweep_CDprops.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 9 Proportion of each congressional district belonging to each cluster. White corresponds to 0.125 (1/8, hypothetical uniform proportion of eight voter clusters). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625171560912-QCX98AKV2WVUE1PADUCX/VolSweep_2020rawfreqheatmap.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 8a Frequency of each voter cluster per county for the top 30 most populous counties. Sorted left to right in order of decreasing total population. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625601355552-08PRMMBOI7BYCZ23UHJ0/VolSweep_2016to2020propchangeheatmap.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 8d Proportion change from 2016 to 2020 in voter cluster turnout per county. White corresponds to 1 which is no change in turnout frequency (could be different people but same number overall) and green[/purple] shows the multiple that turned out in 2020 compared to 2016. Purple is fractional turnout. For example, Reddish Independent had over 2.5x turnout in Collin County in 2020 compared to 2016. Webb County obviously has anomalous results for Picket Fence Betty Draper and Vanilla Libs, which may be due to a discrepancy between Texas Secretary of State data and L2 data. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625204156274-E5EEUSR9S7138ZIE9114/VolSweep_houstonmetroarea_densityplot.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 16 Houston metro area population density plots by voter cluster with 116th Congress boundaries. Check here for a map with current district numbering (that’s the article link, image itself is here). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1627081420370-K849453HFQS9PRUIBAMA/VolSweep_CDprop2020.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 14 Same idea as Figure 8c except with CDs instead of counties. It shows the proportion of each voter cluster per CD that turned out to vote. White is set to 0.50 so anything green is above 50% turnout and anything purple is below 50% turnout. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625616977222-Y4D2XNMTJYNN1PA7WHA6/VolSweep_2020BidenTrump_tietest.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 22 Statistical test for higher vote share per county between major party presidential candidates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1626142245558-HSNSIKCB34TEFQMW4PZF/VolSweep_clusterscatter.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 1 Pairwise biplots for the three principal components explaining the most variance in the data set. The blue cluster is the most conservative overall and the grey cluster is the least conservative overall. Figure 18 in the appendix is the same plot colored by age instead of cluster membership. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625691402469-RK1UU8BD8UQA7BTIQCF1/VolSweep_propcounties.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 3 Proportion of each county made up of each cluster. The lower Río Grande Valley counties are mostly Sleeping “Giant,” whereas the upper Valley has some but is more Blueish Independent. Vanilla Libs and Prog (W)OC are also present in larger proportion along the upper Río Grande Valley than the remaining clusters. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625617819991-7W4SWYUZWSAENVO1YHC9/Unknown-6.png Blog - Texas voter clusters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625617820073-LO0X71274G49PRSCZQVI/Unknown-7.png Blog - Texas voter clusters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625614985762-JJH6L2UUGO52VHQV7JIY/Unknown-5.png Blog - Texas voter clusters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625614986093-KWQXEBONL2736ELZJQIF/Unknown-6.png Blog - Texas voter clusters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625615048308-EPFHF2DKI7J7DR1AMW1W/Unknown-4.png Blog - Texas voter clusters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625081356355-KAW8F5K6PKZZ1D0Q8S7B/VolSweep_agehistos.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 4 Age histograms per cluster for 2020 general election voteds (green) vs non-voteds (purple). Legend totals include out-of-state registered voters, whereas county- and congressional district-based plots in this post do not. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625601168839-XLTIOO4K4IXCEBTRT3SZ/VolSweep_2016propheatmap.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 8b Proportion of each voter cluster voting in the 2016 general election per county for the top 30 most populous counties. White corresponds to half so anything green is > 50% and anything purple is < 50%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1626223797046-DXCQH2AS4RRPURHA3LXI/VolSweep_2020CDPCA.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 10 Pairwise biplots for the first three principal components of voter cluster proportion per congressional district features. The plotting symbol is the district number and color is the current seat holder’s party (except for CD06 which has a special election between two Republicans, so it’s red anyway). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625617011076-7YXEBJP26E5I3ORWQXGK/VolSweep_2020ThirdPartyovertwowaydiff.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625476090098-SGKPT17IQASYEKFZMUNP/VolSweep_CD2020twowayproptest.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 15 This plot shows the results of two-sample tests comparing proportions between voter cluster turnout proportion per CD and the same voter cluster turnout proportion but statewide. In other words, at the given significance level did a cluster have a higher (green) or lower (purple) turnout rate in a CD than it did statewide. Big picture takeaway is that races in CDs of type 1 drove above average turnout rates in almost every voter cluster; the exceptions were CD14 and CD17 which had very average turnout and CD27 which was anomalously low for CD type 1. CD types 4 and 5 in particular do not seem to draw turnout enthusiasm, probably because they are safe Republican and Democrat (refer to figures 10 & 11), respectively, and people feel like their votes are wasted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625616106341-2QUL9KW7D26TPU7SLYDK/Unknown_GOP2016log.png Blog - Texas voter clusters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625616106676-9AVLCI3OL3BVNBDF24UG/Unknown_GOP2020log.png Blog - Texas voter clusters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625616107137-GH6PKQJDYTJAFQ7K3FQ9/Unknown-2.png Blog - Texas voter clusters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625616107478-7AJZH7H1WI5R8H8RYUUW/Unknown_GOP2020prop.png Blog - Texas voter clusters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625616107840-Y3F8MBSWPXP6NJLF63L3/Unknown_GOPpropchange.png Blog - Texas voter clusters https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1627081333503-CSHJNIC56UJ347LGVAB9/VolSweep_CDPCAclustered.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 11 Again, one point per congressional district; size is proportionate to district population. Colored by k-means clustering results. The axes are the same principal components from Figure 10. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625210449971-MH2GKYCATK9O7PQT3TYQ/VolSweep_Houstonagescatter.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 17 Houston city scatterplot by cluster colored by voter age with 116th Congress boundaries. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625472092657-DLDJRUXYW3D7QARJF99R/VolSweep_L2vsTXSOS.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 7 Comparison of L2’s turnout figures and Texas Secretary of State’s turnout figures for the 2020 general election. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1626282181380-OE7HF7ZGTU0FT93QHW2X/VolSweep_PCAvoterclustersage.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 18 Same plot as Figure 1 but colored by voter age instead of cluster membership. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1625605131059-Z97PXBW3X3E0FYVUZJHD/VolSweep_2020donationcomparison.png Blog - Texas voter clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 6 Scatterplot of percentage of each cluster donating to each candidate (dashed line is equal percentage donated to each candidate). https://www.volsweep.com/blog/2022-house-preds monthly 0.5 2022-11-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/59bdba58-3cd5-4204-a7a7-739c79d6a4c5/VolSweep_2022_House_Top50.png Blog - 2022 U.S. House of Representatives Elections Predictions - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1667797596304-RM551Y8WB8DI4AY6KBDS/VolSweep_2022_House_Top50_Rfavoredodds.png Blog - 2022 U.S. House of Representatives Elections Predictions https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1667797595910-56QC07EAAM6TIC10NN93/VolSweep_2022_House_Top50_Dfavoredodds.png Blog - 2022 U.S. House of Representatives Elections Predictions https://www.volsweep.com/blog/2023910/national-voter-clusters monthly 0.5 2023-09-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1c8446ea-c5da-43ca-bbbd-ed480d044a4d/VolSweep_clusters_Centersummary.png Blog - National Voter Clusters - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/d872ff6f-8970-40ab-bf19-b37bcb53872d/VolSweep_clusters_partisanheatmap.png Blog - National Voter Clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 2 Heat map showing the proportion of each national voter cluster belonging to each partisanship category. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/42eb1478-e97d-4c38-9ebb-0ab49fa5223e/VolSweep_clusters_Georgiapropbycounty.png Blog - National Voter Clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 3 This plot shows, by voter cluster, the proportion of each county in Georgia that belongs to the given voter cluster. White represents 1/21 = 0.048 which is the proportion each cluster would represent per county if the clusters were uniformly distributed; anything green is overrepresented from uniform distribution and anything purple is underrepresented from uniform distribution. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/7fda8c17-0ebc-4096-b650-4984ef36f2bf/download-54.png Blog - National Voter Clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 1 Pairwise biplots for the first three principal components in the issue scores clustering feature space. Less opaque patch colors in legend correspond to clusters that support capitalism less on average than the more opaque counterparts. Provided to show general cluster orientation in the clustering feature space. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/b4449c04-78ed-4f45-8817-d5bd0986b219/VolSweep_clusters_CenterLeftsummary.png Blog - National Voter Clusters - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/82a9a0da-eec0-4930-be92-6a33bf05db40/VolSweep_clusters_ageturnouthisto.png Blog - National Voter Clusters - Make it stand out Fig. 4 Two age histograms per voter cluster; a green one for voters who turned out in the 2020 general election, and a purple one for those who did not turn out. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/6d50a6bd-9d04-4bd0-83f2-fc7bb1e73dc9/VolSweep_clusters_Neoliberalsummary.png Blog - National Voter Clusters - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/34eb6900-0890-4a7a-8267-d94e0c15ad09/VolSweep_clusters_CenterRightsummary.png Blog - National Voter Clusters - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/cfd977e1-cab5-448c-a162-466574e7f136/VolSweep_clusters_Conservativesummary.png Blog - National Voter Clusters - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/bbf05254-ac7d-4006-80c3-f5dacd17f5da/VolSweep_clusters_DemSocSocialist.png Blog - National Voter Clusters - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.volsweep.com/blog/2023918/2023-census-tract-types monthly 0.5 2023-09-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1695076155593-5NNYQFSK4U0QDUJR4FXF/Screenshot+2023-09-18+at+18.09.47.png Blog - 2023 Census tract types https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1695076155593-67X8GMD3YYD1UAZKSEK3/Screenshot+2023-09-18+at+18.10.06.png Blog - 2023 Census tract types https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1695076167452-8MNRNJY8TCRKSFLG7LIL/Screenshot+2023-09-18+at+18.10.37.png Blog - 2023 Census tract types https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1695076164059-8EVIRGISF4JWQJM2CAVF/Screenshot+2023-09-18+at+18.11.16.png Blog - 2023 Census tract types https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1695076160027-4OEUE283JVP14IEIBTUA/Screenshot+2023-09-18+at+18.11.38.png Blog - 2023 Census tract types https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1695076159731-LTR22KVXCDLGDPG8UMHD/Screenshot+2023-09-18+at+18.11.55.png Blog - 2023 Census tract types https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1695076164432-HS5HY0UND0AJNOBHSKMN/Screenshot+2023-09-18+at+18.12.41.png Blog - 2023 Census tract types https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/603c2d059959d83fcdc18817/1695076168170-IW44QS9MGYJCT37LQFA6/Screenshot+2023-09-18+at+18.13.18.png Blog - 2023 Census tract types https://www.volsweep.com/home daily 1.0 2023-09-13 https://www.volsweep.com/privacy-policy daily 0.75 2022-02-08 https://www.volsweep.com/terms-of-use daily 0.75 2022-02-08 https://www.volsweep.com/cookie-policy daily 0.75 2022-02-08